[Football- England 'Premier League'] 22.8/ 21:00 Rangers- PSV

[Steve]

[Football- England 'Premier League'] 22.8/ 21:00 Rangers- PSV

Rangers concede 1.2 goals on average playing at home. PSV concede 0.9 goals on average away from home. Both sides score about 2 goals on average.

These metrics are 95% made up of domestic league stats. While this makes analysis for international competition a little hazy, I personally think it’s a reinforcement. Both of these top sides are conceding an average of at least 1 goal per match to very ordinary, very average, Scottish and Dutch opponents.

BTTS has hit in each of the Rangers previous UCL legs, against a far less skilled team in Servette. PSV are levels above that Swiss side, and should easily find the back of the net against the Rangers today.

BTTS also hit for each of PSV’s previous legs, and once again, I classify the Rangers as a much better side than Sturm Graz (especially at home).

Cards also come into play today, with nearly 6 predicted. Odds of a penalty are pretty high accordingly, and further enforce our BTTS position.

-150 is juiced, however we’re getting a ton of EV in this line still. Both of my UCL models have BTTS graded at over a 75% hit probability in this matchup. This correlates to about -350 American odds.

BTTS (Both Teams to Score) @1,70 Bet365

FT 2:2