[Football- England 'Premier League'] 17.8/ 16:00 Newcastle- Southampton

[Joshka]

[Football- England 'Premier League'] 17.8/ 16:00 Newcastle- Southampton

Newcastle start the season off in the fortress of St. James Park which is maybe the hardest place to play in the Premier League. Coming to visit is newly promoted Southampton, not the way you want to start you Premier League Campaign. Newcastle are coming off an underwhelming year due to injuries and suspensions stretching them too thin between the Prem and Champions League. This year, without European competition, Newcastle will be going for top 4, anything worse than that being a disappointment. There is no doubt they have the talent, as they proved how dangerous they could be back in the 2022/23 campaign where they finished fourth as well as early on last season with big wins against Arsenal and Villa before injuries struck. Regardless of their form, St James has always been an impossible venue to play at for opposing teams. Newcastle ranked first in home advantage last season, getting 2.11 PPG at home versus just 1.05 away. Their xG and xGA stats as well every other metric heavily improved at home versus when playing away. In this first game of the season last year, Newcastle hosted Villa and battered them 5-1, Villa obviously ended up finishing in the top 4.

On the other hand, Southhampton manager Russel Martin is very stubborn in the way he plays, as at MK Dons, Swansea, and now Southhampton he has always played a very lopsided possession based style if play. They completed 2000 more passes than anyone in the Championship last season including the likes of Liecester and Ipswich, two other heavily possession based teams, while attempting the second least amount of long balls. This will not work in the Premier League, as Eddie Howe commands a very physical and effective press which will be flying tomorrow in their home opener. Southampton simply doesn’t have the quality to consistently beat the press and based off of their performances last year I don’t see them beating teams over the top, hence why I have them finishing 20th this year. To make matters worse, Southamptons ranked around the bottom in almost every single defensive category in the Championship last season, so Newcastle shouldn’t have any problem beating their low block either. In addition, Southampton GK Gavin Bazunu might genuinely be one of the worse goalies in the world, Just look up his advanced stats if you don’t believe me. He had something like 16 GA over his xGA last season which is just horrendous. The only reason he is still playing is because he was signed as a young prospect from City who was meant to be good. He isn't.

I also like Newcastle -0.5 1H but decided to with this play because it is the start if a new season so if Newcastle comes out slow this gives me a buffer that they turn it on in the second half.

1 (handicap -1,5) @2,00 Bet365

FT 1:0