[Tennis- ATP Australian Open] 19.1/ 2:00 J.Sinner- S.Baez

[Radu]

[Tennis- ATP Australian Open] 19.1/ 2:00 J.Sinner- S.Baez


Look, Sinner is going to win this match. He will dominate it. But to cover 9.5, he's going to need to outbreak Baez by 5, which will require winning nearly 50% of Baez's service games. That being said, I'm not scared of this line. 9.5 is a good number for favorites because it doesn't depend on who serves first in set 1.

For the rationale, it's similar to the last two I've picked. Baez is a clay court specialist, and Sinner is best on hard. Don't be scared by the fact that Baez is ranked - he's achieved that rank by performing extremely strongly on clay and playing essentially .500 tennis on hard. Also, it's not like Baez has turned any huge corner on hard by making the 3rd round here. He got the benefit of playing an injured JJ Wolf who ultimately retired in the 4th set (Baez was on his way to winning, but again injury) and Galan, who is another clay court guy. Playing against the power of Sinner who not only can win points quickly but also hang in rallies, he will be completely overwhelmed.

1 (handicap -9,5 gems ) @1,85 Bet365