[Football- Champions League] 3.5/ 21:00 Villareal- Liverpool
Why: I can’t believe how low this spread is for these good of odds… Liverpool are one of the top teams in number of corners taken per match in all of Europe. They dominate game in and game out.
In the first leg last week. Liverpool had 10 corners while Villarreal only had 2. It must be noted that Villarreal played very defensive in the first leg and can’t play like that in the second leg. But if anything that actually increases Liverpool’s chances of getting more corners because they’ll be able to get more chances with Villarreal opening up more.
In 2022, Liverpool have covered the -1.5 corner spread in all but 6 matches and 2 of those were against Manchester City, and then once against Chelsea, Inter, Brighton, and Leicester. For the record, Liverpool have played 28 matches in 2022, meaning they covered this spread 22 times out of 28.
No bet is 100% guaranteed and here’s some data on why this bet could fail. Villarreal are the home team. When playing against superior teams in La Liga this season (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Atletico) they managed to keep the corner game rather close. However those teams play very different to Liverpool. Villarreal did lose the corner battle badly against Bayern Munich in both legs of the UCL quarterfinal and lost badly once against Juventus in R16 (they actually won the corner count in first leg).
Taking this bet tho because I believe in Liverpool to cover this again. They did rest a few players over the weekend including Salah, Thiago, and Mane came off the pitch early. Meaning Liverpool will be ready to go. Odds are also so good. I wouldve considered this corner spread at -3.5 or even -4.5 let alone -1.5.
2 @1,80 Bet365
FT 2:3
[Football- Champions League] 3.5/ 21:00 Villareal- Liverpool
2 @1,80
