[Football- Nations League] 18.6/ 20:45 Croatia- Spain

[Zlatko]

[Football- Nations League] 18.6/ 20:45 Croatia- Spain


Even if nations league is not the most sexy trophy to win it is still a trophy that both teams wants to win. This game is up for graps for both teams and from a betting perspective there is a ton of value on betting Croatia with these odds. Even BTTS, O2.5 goals and Croatia to lift the trophy!. Besides the point we are only focused on why both teams will score tonight!. In the last 4 H2H matches there has been 22 goals between them.

Croatia found themselfs in the final after beating Netherlands on extratime 4-2. Full Time was 2-2 so btts happened also there. Croatia had an xG of 3.38 and Netherlands had the xG of 1.62.
Spains road to final was against Italy which ended 2-1. xG for Spain was a 2.23 and Italy had 1.94.

What does those numbers mean for you degens that doesn't watch football? For example a penalty kick is a xG of 0.78. So there should be goalscoring opportunities for both teams. Now we just hope they score from them. Imo 2.00 odds are way too much for this game. I would have taken everything over 1.75 odds.

The game is played in a neutral stadium so finding a home team edge is void. Im only gonna provide you with overall stats and away stats!.

Nations league only stats:
xG (expected goals) for Spain is 1.82 and they score an avarage of 1.9 per game.
They also concede 0.9 goals per game and BTTS hits 50% of the time.

xG for Croatia is 1.60 and they score an avarage of 1.5 goals per game
They concede 1.00 goals per game and BTTS hits 60% time.

Croatia form in Nations league - DWWWW
Croatia in all competitions - WLWDWW
Spain in Nations league - DWWLWW
Spain in all comps - DLLWLW

BTTS (Both Teams to Score) @1,85 Bet365

FT 0:0