[Football- France 'Ligue 1'] 15.4/ 21:00 PSG-Lens
Posted: 15 Apr 2023 16:10
[Football- France 'Ligue 1'] 15.4/ 21:00 PSG-Lens
A match that could decide the championship of France. A victory for PSG will practically ensure the title, although given the team's performance in recent weeks - we can't be sure of that. What do the numbers say about it?
The ELO algorithm gives PSG a 56% chance of winning. This means that any odds above 1.79 carry some value. Currently, we have big increases on PSG and you can catch a value of 1.85 at some bookmakers, so picking a 1, contrary to appearances, makes some sense here. Especially that whether we want it or not - PSG has much more potential, and the stake of the meeting should make them approach it with commitment. And that's what this team has been missing in recent weeks.
On the other hand, this season PSG has had a poor home run against the top Ligue 1.
0:1 against Lyon
0-2 against Rennes
3:4 from Lille
1-0 against Marseille
1-1 against Monaco
The balance of 2-1-2 looks pale. Still, let's not forget about the stakes of today's duel. Today, PSG can't even get past the match.
How, in turn, Lens is doing on trips with the widely understood leaders in France?
Rennes - Lens 0:1
Lyon - Lens 2:1
Marseille - Lens 0:1
Lille - Lens 1:0
Monaco - Lens 1:4
3-0-2 are impressive numbers for a team of this caliber, but let's not forget that PSG is a different shelf financially and personnel and this comparison is not entirely reliable. For these reasons, I will refrain from drawing any conclusions from these statistics.
What, in turn, can we determine regarding the bets on the number of goals?
Adding up the results of both teams this season, we will get a distribution of 55%-45% towards the result of over 2.5 goals. For this reason, over 2.5 is not particularly profitable, while under with odds around 2.20 is on the border of this profitability, but its occurrence is less likely.
It gets more interesting when we look at the "expected goals" algorithm. Because it shows that Lens lost as many as 10 fewer goals than it should theoretically, and PSG lost these goals by 6 less. This is some indication towards an over, or even towards a PSG victory, because it shows us that Lens' position in the table is slightly higher than the real level of play of this team. In this perspective, the team of Adam Buksa and Przemysław Frankowski ranks worse than Lille, which is only 5th in the table and has collected as many as 11 points less.
Several statistics show that betting on PSG to win actually makes sense in this case. Especially in the face of rising exchange rates and the stake of the match, which may be the main factor determining its course.
1 @1,85 Bet365
FT 3:1
A match that could decide the championship of France. A victory for PSG will practically ensure the title, although given the team's performance in recent weeks - we can't be sure of that. What do the numbers say about it?
The ELO algorithm gives PSG a 56% chance of winning. This means that any odds above 1.79 carry some value. Currently, we have big increases on PSG and you can catch a value of 1.85 at some bookmakers, so picking a 1, contrary to appearances, makes some sense here. Especially that whether we want it or not - PSG has much more potential, and the stake of the meeting should make them approach it with commitment. And that's what this team has been missing in recent weeks.
On the other hand, this season PSG has had a poor home run against the top Ligue 1.
0:1 against Lyon
0-2 against Rennes
3:4 from Lille
1-0 against Marseille
1-1 against Monaco
The balance of 2-1-2 looks pale. Still, let's not forget about the stakes of today's duel. Today, PSG can't even get past the match.
How, in turn, Lens is doing on trips with the widely understood leaders in France?
Rennes - Lens 0:1
Lyon - Lens 2:1
Marseille - Lens 0:1
Lille - Lens 1:0
Monaco - Lens 1:4
3-0-2 are impressive numbers for a team of this caliber, but let's not forget that PSG is a different shelf financially and personnel and this comparison is not entirely reliable. For these reasons, I will refrain from drawing any conclusions from these statistics.
What, in turn, can we determine regarding the bets on the number of goals?
Adding up the results of both teams this season, we will get a distribution of 55%-45% towards the result of over 2.5 goals. For this reason, over 2.5 is not particularly profitable, while under with odds around 2.20 is on the border of this profitability, but its occurrence is less likely.
It gets more interesting when we look at the "expected goals" algorithm. Because it shows that Lens lost as many as 10 fewer goals than it should theoretically, and PSG lost these goals by 6 less. This is some indication towards an over, or even towards a PSG victory, because it shows us that Lens' position in the table is slightly higher than the real level of play of this team. In this perspective, the team of Adam Buksa and Przemysław Frankowski ranks worse than Lille, which is only 5th in the table and has collected as many as 11 points less.
Several statistics show that betting on PSG to win actually makes sense in this case. Especially in the face of rising exchange rates and the stake of the match, which may be the main factor determining its course.
1 @1,85 Bet365
FT 3:1