[Football- Spain 'La Liga'] 15.2/ 21:00 Real Madrid- Elche
Posted: 15 Feb 2023 12:56
[Football- Spain 'La Liga'] 15.2/ 21:00 Real Madrid- Elche
Real Madrid have been inconsistent this season, and they have far lesser rest than Elche going into this match, which may explain the opening odds and the subsequent movement of the odds favouring Elche.
However, I think the market has overreacted to Real's drop-off and overestimated Elche as an away side following their 3-1 home win to Villareal last time out.
This is the same Elche side whose post-World Cup away form reads: W0 D1 L2, 1-6 goals scored/conceded.
Notably, those two away losses were against Sevilla (3-0) and Atletico Madrid (2-0), both teams which Real has put up better attacking numbers at home (Real: 20.2 xG, Sevilla and Atletico: 15.7 xG).
In contrast, Elche are the joint-lowest scorers in the division with 15 goals, and they also hold the worst defensive record, having conceded 40.
Real Madrid have a strong home record on both attacking and defending fronts, and they should be able to push or clear a -2 handicap against this bottom Elche side on the day.
Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is expected to return to the starting XI on Wednesday after missing his side's Club World Cup triumph with a minor injury, meaning backup keeper Andriy Lunin will drop to the bench.
Vinicius Junior is out due to suspension, as the winger picked up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in the defeat to Mallorca.
Following his hat-trick against Villarreal last time out, Elche winger Pere Milla looks set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines after undergoing clavicle surgery.
The visitors will also be without the injured trio of John Nwankwo, Alex Collado and Tete Morente for the trip to Madrid, while Omar Mascarell and Helibelton Palacios are suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
1 (handicap -1,5) @2,10 Will Hill
FT 4:0
Real Madrid have been inconsistent this season, and they have far lesser rest than Elche going into this match, which may explain the opening odds and the subsequent movement of the odds favouring Elche.
However, I think the market has overreacted to Real's drop-off and overestimated Elche as an away side following their 3-1 home win to Villareal last time out.
This is the same Elche side whose post-World Cup away form reads: W0 D1 L2, 1-6 goals scored/conceded.
Notably, those two away losses were against Sevilla (3-0) and Atletico Madrid (2-0), both teams which Real has put up better attacking numbers at home (Real: 20.2 xG, Sevilla and Atletico: 15.7 xG).
In contrast, Elche are the joint-lowest scorers in the division with 15 goals, and they also hold the worst defensive record, having conceded 40.
Real Madrid have a strong home record on both attacking and defending fronts, and they should be able to push or clear a -2 handicap against this bottom Elche side on the day.
Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is expected to return to the starting XI on Wednesday after missing his side's Club World Cup triumph with a minor injury, meaning backup keeper Andriy Lunin will drop to the bench.
Vinicius Junior is out due to suspension, as the winger picked up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in the defeat to Mallorca.
Following his hat-trick against Villarreal last time out, Elche winger Pere Milla looks set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines after undergoing clavicle surgery.
The visitors will also be without the injured trio of John Nwankwo, Alex Collado and Tete Morente for the trip to Madrid, while Omar Mascarell and Helibelton Palacios are suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
1 (handicap -1,5) @2,10 Will Hill
FT 4:0