[Football- Italy 'Serie A'] 17.2/ 20:45 Atalanta- Sassuolo

Post by **Alex** » 17 Feb 2024 18:34

[Football- Italy 'Serie A'] 17.2/ 20:45 Atalanta- Sassuolo

Outside runaway leaders Inter Milan, Atalanta have had the best form line in Italy over the last two months. Since losing to Torino 3-0 in early December, they have gone 7-1-1 in the league and added two cup wins against AC Milan and today’s opponent, Sassuolo.

Atalanta have jumped up to 4th with a 13-3-7 record and are targeting the final Champions League place. They’ve scored 44 goals (3rd best) and conceded 23 (5th best). They’ve won 4 straight league matches registering comprehensive 2+ goal wins in each of them.

Sassuolo are heading rapidly in the other direction. They have gone 1-2-7 over their last 10 league games which has seen them plummet to 17th in the standings with a 5-5-13 record. They’ve scored 29 times which is good enough for 10th most, but they’ve also conceded 42 goals which is 4th most.

While there is an obvious difference in the recent form between these teams, it’s the home/away split that really seals the deal for me. At home, Atalanta have a 9-1-2 record this season with 27 goals scored and only 8 conceded. They’ve won 6 league matches at home in a row - they just click in front of their home fans and play great attacking football which normally results in plenty of goals. Sassuolo meanwhile are putrid away from home. They are 2-2-8 this season with a 15:26 goal ratio, and they’ve lost their last 4 away matches in a row.

Finally, Atalanta have played Sassuolo twice this season already. They beat them at Sassuolo 2-0 back in August, before beating them just over a month ago 3-1 at home in a cup match. In that home match, Atalanta dominated them with 25 shots and an xG of 3.16 while Sassuolo managed a junk time consolation goal.

Atalanta are expected to play the same team that have delivered them success recently, so given their hot form, Sassuolo’s poor form, H2H record and the home/away factor, give me Atalanta to win this one comfortably.

1 (handicap -1,5) @2,00 Bet365

FT 3:0