[Football- France 'Ligue 1'] 14.4/ 21:00 Toulouse-Lyon

[Zlatko]

[Football- France 'Ligue 1'] 14.4/ 21:00 Toulouse-Lyon

Lyon is a team that seems to be changing to pieces since reaching the semi-finals of the Champions League. The potential is there - but it is always unrealized and instead of playing in the Champions League, there is at most the Europa League or even no qualification for the cups. The club is based on the academy, which is the apple of the eye of the owner (Jean Michel Aulas) and tries to play attractive, attacking football to promote the players. Coaches have been recently selected for this philosophy and one can even be tempted to say that it was the reason why the number of points in the table did not always match. However, when it comes to the effectiveness or attractiveness of the shows - Lyon could not be accused of much.

He finished the 2020/21 season with an average of 3.3 goals in his matches (the highest in the entire Ligue 1) and recorded 25 overs in 38 matches - second only to Monaco. A year later it was a bit worse, because 3.1 goals / match and 21 overs is only the fifth result in France. And the current games, mostly led by Laurent Blanc, mean maintaining the trend, which does not fully reflect the 13th place in the Ligue 1 table in terms of over 2.5 goals. It should be noted, however, that 16 overs in 30 games is a percentage very similar to that of the previous season, and the lower relative position in the table is the result of a clear increase in the average goals per game in the French league.

In this perspective, Toulouse also performs very well, which recorded 20 overs in 30 matches and is the leader in this ranking. So the numbers seem to point towards an over in this match, although the odds of 1.60 - do not carry a particularly high value. It is also worth noting that the "expected goals" statistics for both teams are very similar to their real offensive performance, so this algorithm in this case does not bring anything new to the topic and does not change the real probability of an over. It is close to 60%, and the odds seem to be very well estimated.

Moving on to the issue of potential absences, both sides will miss important wingers. The hosts will be without Rafael Ratao (5 goals/2 assists in Ligue1) and the visitors without Bradley Barcola (5 goals/3 assists). However, these are not irreplaceable gaps, because both Toulouse and Lyon do not suffer from excessive deficits in these positions.

How did Toulouse's home clashes with teams with a potential similar to Lyon's?

0:2 against Lille
2:3 with Marseille
3-1 against Rennes
0-2 against Monaco

The balance does not look impressive, not a single clean sheet was kept, in 3 out of 4 matches the hosts lost at least 2 goals and they ended in defeats.

How, in turn, Lyon dealt with teams playing in Ligue 1 primarily for relegation on trips?

Angers - Lyon 1:3
Auxerre - Lyon 2:1
Troyes-Lyon 1:3
Ajaccio - Lyon 0:2
Nantes - Lyon 0:0
Brest-Lyon 2:4
Montpellier - Lyon 1:2
Lorient - Lyon 3:1
Reims - Lyon 1:1

5-2-2 is a good balance, which combined with the performance of Toulouse makes the odds for Lyon's victory (around 2.10) seem quite reasonable. This may also somehow explain the large drops to the popular "2" (from 2.60).

It is also not without significance here that Lyon have not lost in Ligue 1 for 6 matches, and the away win against PSG and the 3-1 home win over Rennes certainly had a positive impact on the team's morale and it can be assumed that they are in good shape . On the other side of the barricade, it looks average at best. 3 defeats in the previous 5 rounds and what is interesting - a series of three defeats at home do not build an overly good image of the form of this team.

Conclusions:

Moderate value can be seen in the bet on Lyon to win. However, strong exchange rate drops do not make it particularly attractive (except that in some conditions it is still playable).

Over 2.5 has a better chance of occurring, while exceptionally well-estimated odds do not really encourage you to play either side.

Lyon's goal seems to be the safest bet. Toulouse are not doing well in duels with the top Ligue 1, and Lyon have no major problems with scoring on the pitches of teams whose priority is staying in the table. The problem here, however, is the courses. They do not exceed 1.20 at any of the legal bookmakers, so there is no question of a tax-free game or an AKO bonus in the case of a slightly longer coupon. On the other hand, if you like to play this kind of "sure thing", then there are actually solid reasons for Lyon's goal pick in today's match.

2 @2,10 Bwin

FT 1:2