[Tennis- ATP Atlanta] 25.7/ 18:00 M.McDonald- Y.Nishioka
I really like Nishioka to win a set, but the odds are below the threshold allowed for this thread. So instead, I will go a bit riskier and take Nishioka ML for the good value.
These two have played each other 4 times on hard (3 times last year). The head-to-head on hard is tied 2-2, but let's focus on the 3 more recent games in 2023. Nishioka has won twice: 2-0 (6-4, 6-3) and 3-0 (7-6, 6-3, 6-2), while McDonald has won once: 2-1 (6-3, 3-6, 6-2). On hard, McDonald has a career 57.86% win rate, while going 1-3 so far this year. Meanwhile, Nishioka has a career 61.54% win rate and 5-8 so far this year. Both players have been struggling a bit lately without making much ground in tournaments. However, Nishioka historically has played very well against McDonald. 4-2 all surfaces/11-6 total set count & 2-2 on hard/6-4 total set count. I think the books are underestimating him a little bit here so this is mostly a value pick that I am taking with a smaller unit size.
2 @2,20 Bet365
3:6 4:6
[Tennis- ATP Atlanta] 25.7/ 18:00 M.McDonald- Y.Nishioka
2 @2,20
