[Football- Turkey 'Super Lig'] 1.4/ 18:00 Erzurum BB- Besiktas
I am very surprised about these odds. Besiktas are the league leaders and Erzurumspor are second last in the league. Looking at form (results in the last 6 games) Besiktas is the most in-form team in the league. They won 4, had a draw against Fenerbahce and had one away loss against Kasimpasa, but one game later they trash Alanyaspor (who are quite good), so that one loss is an incident.
Looking at form (results in the last 6 games) Erzurumspor is the worst team in the league. 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 games. Moreover, they are the worst home team in the league, only winning 1 home game all season. They have failed to win 16 out of their last 17 home games.
In terms of absentees Erzurum is missing quite some players. 3 players are suspended (2 of them are regular starters) and 2 are injured (1 of them is a regular starter).
Besiktas is missing Souza and Aboubakar who are important players, but their team has the depth to compensate for these absentees. For example with Cenk Tosun, who has immediately shown his worth sice joining the team. He scored 3 goals in 99 minutes of playing time.
A win today is important for Besiktas, because it will create a gap to number 2 Fenerbahce of 7 points, which means a tremendous step towards the championship. My model gives Besiktas a 70% win chance, which means the odds of 2.00 offer extreme value.
2 @2,00 Bet365
FT 2:4
[Football- Turkey 'Super Lig'] 1.4/ 18:00 Erzurum BB- Besiktas
2 @2,00
