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[Tennis- ATP French Open] 6.10/ 16:00 D.Schwartzman- D. Thiem

Posted: 06 Oct 2020 12:12
by Radu
[Tennis- ATP French Open] 6.10/ 16:00 D.Schwartzman- D. Thiem
First of all, I don't expect a 3 sets match here. Will be a tough one. Schwartzman has been playing incredible since the Nadal match in Rome. Thiem is always one of the biggest favourites of this tournament but he really struggled against the superb Frenchman Gaston. Gaston tired Thiem up with his excellent drop shots. I believe that Thiem is still tired. He also said that he had some stomach issues yesterday. Schwartzman hasn't dropped a set yet. Thiem is leading h2h by 6-2. If Schwartzman plays the way he played against Nadal and Shapovalov in Rome, he can absolutely win this match. I will try Schwartzman ML with low stake but my main bet for this match is over 10.5 total breaks of serve. Schwartzman doesn't have a big serve. It's not very difficult to break his serve for top players but he takes those breaks back easily with his stunning clay court performance. He is so quick and very consistent on the long baseline rallies. Not easy to dominate service games against Schwartzman. Let's just take a look at some stats, Schwartzman's serve has been broken 12 times out of 4 matches, 12 sets. means 1 break per set. None of those players were at Thiem's level. So Thiem has a big chance to break more and if we consider this match as 4 sets at least, means at least 4 break for Thiem which I think it will be more. Schwartzman broke his opponents serves 34 times out of 4 matches, 12 sets. Means 2.83 breaks per set. Thiem's serve has been broken 8 times out of 4 matches, 14 sets. means 0.57 break per set. Thiem broke his opponents serves 22 times out of 4 matches, 14 sets. means 1.57 breaks per set.Thiem's serve statistics have been incredible so far but he also hasn't played against anyone at Schwartzman's level. So this will be a different match. I expect a similar match to Schwartzman - Nadal or Schwartzman - Shapovalov here which 4 breaks occurred per set in both matches. When we look at the clay court matches between Schwartzman and Thiem, the average total breaks of serve is 3.83 per set. Besides these numbers, I expect a long match and tired Thiem will definitely drop more service games than his usual against Schwartzman.

over 10.5 breaks @1,85
1xbet

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