[Football- Portugal 'Taca de Portugal'] 7.2/ 20:45 Leira- Sporting Lisbon

[MN]

[Football- Portugal 'Taca de Portugal'] 7.2/ 20:45 Leira- Sporting Lisbon

This is a quarter final cup match (Taca de Portugal) and on paper this is a giant mismatch. Sporting Lisbon are sitting second in the Portuguese Primeira Liga with a 16-1-2 record. They were top of the table heading into the last round but their most recent match was abandoned before kick off due to crowd violence, so they have a game in hand and should move back on top once that balances out. Sporting have scored 53 goals in 19 matches and only conceded 19. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, and their most recent match was an 8-0 victory against mid-table opposition in the first division.

Today they take on Leiria who are 13th in the second division with a 6-6-8 record. They have a 3-3-4 across their last 10 competitive matches. They’ve only scored 25 goals in 20 matches, while they’ve conceded 23. That’s a good number compared to other teams in their division, but they haven’t faced any teams with remotely the same firepower as Sporting Lisbon. Leiria have progressed to this stage courtesy of a favourable draw, beating a couple of non-division teams and then a couple of teams from the second division, but this is a massive step up in terms of quality.

I was surprised to see these odds for -1.75 as I see Lisbon destroying them. My biggest concern was perhaps Lisbon playing a weakened team, but looking back at their past two Taca de Portugal matchups, they fielded full strength teams to beat Dumiense 8-0 (non division opponent) and Tondela 4-0 (6th in the same division as Leiria). Previews all suggest that Lisbon are expected to play a full strength team that will be well rested after the cancellation of their last match.

Lisbon are scoring for fun lately, and I think that winning by 3+ goals is very likely. With this bet, even if they win by 2 goals we will see a small profit with half the bet pushing, but this has demolition written all over it.

2 (handicap -1,5) @1,85 Bet365

FT 0:3